Table 2 Segmented regression analysis assessing the impact of war and COVID-19 on patient visits at inpatient, outpatient, and emergency departments, ACSH, Tigray, Ethiopia, 2017–2021 (N = 1,064,340)
Service area | Coefficient (95% CI) | SE | t-test | P-value | R2-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inpatient | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Baseline level\(, \beta\)0 | 1,360.9(1,279.5, 1,442.2) | 40.3 | 33.7 | < 0.001 | 0.84 |
Baseline trend,\(\beta\)1 | 3.2(-1.2, 7.5) | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.152 | |
Level change after COVID-19, \(\beta\)2 | -521.7(-705.5, -337.9) | 91.1 | -5.7 | < 0.001 | |
Trend change after COVID-19,\(\beta\)3 | 20.9(-24.5, 66.3) | 22.5 | 0.9 | 0.359 | |
Level change after war, \(\beta\)4 | -493.0(-747.3, -238.8) | 126.0 | -3.9 | < 0.001 | |
Trend change after war,\(\beta\)5 | 22.3(-36.0, 80.7) | 28.9 | 0.8 | 0.444 | |
Outpatient | Â | ||||
Baseline level\(, \beta\)0 | 17,408.9(16,162.5, 18,655.3) | 617.6 | 28.2 | < 0.001 | 0.90 |
Baseline trend,\(\beta\)1 | 245.2(178.3, 312.2) | 33.2 | 7.4 | < 0.001 | |
Level change after COVID-19, \(\beta\)2 | -15,448.5(-18,263.9, -12,633.1) | 1,395.1 | -11.1 | < 0.001 | |
Trend change after COVID-19,\(\beta\)3 | 142.2(-553.0, 837.4) | 344.5 | 0.4 | 0.682 | |
Level change after war, \(\beta\)4 | -6,631.6 (-10,525.7, -2,737.5) | 1,929.6 | -3.4 | 0.001 | |
Trend change after war,\(\beta\)5 | 1,219.4(326.1, 2,112.8) | 442.7 | 2.7 | 0.009 | |
Emergency | Â | ||||
Baseline level\(, \beta\)0 | 2,380.1(2,142.6, 2,617.6) | 117.7 | 20.2 | < 0.001 | 0.70 |
Baseline trend,\(\beta\)1 | 33.3(20.6, 46.1) | 6.3 | 5.3 | < 0.001 | |
Level change after COVID-19, \(\beta\)2 | -1,534.7(-2,071.3, -998.2) | 265.8.0 | -5.7 | < 0.001 | |
Trend change after COVID-19,\(\beta\)3 | 44.6(-87.9, 177.1) | 65.6 | 0.7 | 0.501 | |
Level change after war, \(\beta\)4 | -1,120.4(-1,862.5, -378.4) | 367.7 | -3.0 | 0.004 | |
Trend change after war,\(\beta\)5 | 118.8(-51.4, 289.1) | 84.4 | 1.4 | 0.166 | |