Fig. 3

The monthly risk of mortality for an average HIV patient in the Zemio cohort. The point gives the posterior median, the broad bar the 80% posterior credible interval and the thin bar the 95% posterior credible interval. An average patient is defined as a female, 31 years old at baseline, with clinical stage 3 opportunistic infections at baseline. We also assume 2 civilian deaths or injuries per month and 21 abductions (median values for conflict explanatory variables). The risk varies by the length of time the patient is in the cohort, with the probability of mortality highest in the first 2 months, and then declines rapidly until the twelfth month. Note that these monthly probabilities are conditional on the patient having survived until that point